Ukraine's long-range drones - A strategic weapon shaking Russian confidence. Most important weapon in 2024

Given the growing stagnation and deadlock on the front, Ukraine can rely on its special weapons, which have already managed to terrify the Russians. We are talking about long-range drones reaching Moscow. Kyiv is suggesting that their production has reached mass levels, enabling powerful attacks deep inside Russia. This may be a crucial tactic in 2024 when the fate of the war will be decided by societal morale.

Ukrainian's arms race

“In December, we will produce over 50,000 FPV drones. Additionally, we can already produce over 10,000 medium-range attack drones (hundreds of kilometers), and next year, over a thousand drones with a range of over 1,000 kilometers”. These words of Oleksandr Kamishin, Minister of Strategic Industry of Ukraine, illustrate how much Ukrainians believe in their long-range drone production industry. There is no denying that they have a large propaganda dimension, serving to convince society and world opinion that nothing will break the fighting spirit of Ukrainians.

This is not surprising because the Ukrainian long-range drone program can be considered a symbol of this spirit. Its development is one of the greatest successes of Ukrainians during the war. This success can help Ukraine in the difficult year 2024, making long-range drones one of the most important weapons of the entire war. This is somewhat shown by the history of the development of these drones by Kyiv, which has previously amazed the world.

The Russians started the war with the rather childish belief that they would bomb and not be bombed. The failure of the “three-day military operation” meant that Ukrainians quickly woke them up from these dreams when they started shelling critical infrastructure in pre-war areas of Russia. However, at first, these were attacks on the border areas. Kyiv needed something that would make Russians who lived in a blissful sense of security aware that war could also strike their homes.

"In December, we will produce over 50,000 FPV drones. Additionally, we can already produce over 10,000 medium-range attack drones (hundreds of kilometers), and next year, over a thousand drones with a range of over 1,000 kilometers"
Oleksandr Kamishin

This piece of metal was easily recognized as part of the drone's fuselage. However, everyone was electrified by the description: “Range: 1000 km, warhead weight: 75 kg. We are finalizing the work”. This was a clear signal that Ukraine had started working on weapons that could reach Moscow. The Russians began to speculate whether the Ukrainians would actually manage to break through Russian air defenses. The attacks on military airports near Ryazan and Saratov in December 2022 dispelled these doubts.

Russia [Land 404]. A story of fear

A few days after the first anniversary of the outbreak of the war, Ukrainians carried out a large drone attack on Russian territory. One Ukrainian UJ-22 machine caught attention, which crashed before reaching its target. For many, it was a shock that it was found near the town of Gubastovo, approximately 100 kilometers from Moscow. Although Kyiv did not comment on this accident, everyone following the war events clearly stated that Ukraine was behind it.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1630545767604670467

It was enough for one drone to approach Moscow to arouse fear among Russians. Additional air defense systems appeared in the Russian capital. Some were even placed on administration buildings, including on the roof of the Russian Ministry of Defense. The Kremlin authorities were unable to pretend that the prospect of Ukrainians possessing long-range drones really scared them. May clearly reminded us of this. Earlier this month, one drone exploded just above the Kremlin. The Russians immediately accused the Ukrainians of this, even when there was no clear evidence of it.

Russian authorities also showed their panic by referring to the “alleged” threat from Ukrainian drones in Moscow during the May 9 Victory Day parade. The Ukrainians literally got into Putin's head, giving signals that they might launch an attack, embarrassing Russia. Therefore, additional security measures were introduced at the parade. When the Ukrainians finally did nothing on May 9, some people believed that it was because of the fear he created that the Russians carried out the “poorest” victory parade in history. Nevertheless, a surprise came on May 30, when at least eight Ukrainian drones reached the Russian capital, where some crashed in the southwest of the city. It was the moment when Kyiv demonstrated to the entire world that it was capable of launching a coordinated attack under Putin's throat.

We Are Closer Than You Think...

It is also since May that the Ukrainians have intensified their attacks on remote areas deep into Russia. The inhabitants of Moscow themselves could observe the Ukrainian drone strikes in July, August, and November, where, despite the efforts of air defense, some of the machines reached the target. Further attacks by the Ukrainians were possible because they finally managed to develop their long-range drone program to such an extent that they already had a machine specially designed for such actions, such as the UJ-26 Bobr.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1686203819825188864

Thanks to the Beavers, the Ukrainians reached Moscow, which they still try to attack regularly. As the president of the Russian capital assured, one of the last Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow took place on December 14, when all the machines were shot down. And this also somehow shows what position the Ukrainians are currently in with their long-range drones. Despite their first successes, the Russians no longer treat them as such a big threat as they did at the beginning. For them, additional defense systems or even equipping the militia with anti-drone rifles is to ensure safety. But the Ukrainians' announcements suggest that the Russians will start to fear Ukrainian long-range drones again.

... And We'll Hit Until It Hurts

In the coming year of war, one of the most important resources will be public morale. Currently, the conflict has entered a phase of stagnation for many, due to the stalemate situation on the front and the increasing fatigue of the parties involved in the conflict. The failure of the counteroffensive, less Western support than in 2022, and controversial decisions to conscript men "taking them off the streets" significantly extinguish war support in Ukraine. Russia wants to take advantage of this, as Putin has been preparing its citizens for a long war for several months, believing that they can withstand more than Ukrainians. And this is where long-range drones can play a role.

If Ukraine is actually able to produce drones in larger numbers, it could use them for much more frequent and powerful attacks on cities far from the front. For this to be effective, Ukraine needs a real drone army. Even with the attacks so far, most of the machines were destroyed. The announcement of the number of machines that Kyiv wants to produce in 2024 suggests that the appropriate processing capacity for their production has only now been achieved. At the same time, Ukrainians are increasingly focused on producing cheaper and easier-to-build drones.

This month, the Ukrainian company Terminal Autonomy presented the latest AQ 400 Scythe drone, which can cover up to 750 kilometers. However, its base version costs $15,000, and with all the extras, $30,000. However, the creators of the AQ 400 Scythe immediately assured that they are currently able to produce 100 such drones. For comparison, slightly over 50 UJ-26 Bobr drones were to be built for this forest, each of which costs 100-110 thousand dollars.