Russia Plans to Destabilize Ukraine in May: Ukrainian Intelligence

Russia is preparing a plan for destabilizing Ukraine, which is expected to unfold in May. The plan consists of three layers: gaining advantage on the battlefield, conducting a disinformation campaign within Ukraine, and isolating Ukraine on the international stage.

Russia's three-layered plan for destabilizing Ukraine

According to Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Chief of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, the primary focus will be on the military aspect. Russia aims to take advantage of the weeks it will take for new supplies of military aid from the United States, recently approved by Congress, to reach the Ukrainian front lines. Even though the US Congress has approved increased military aid, it will take weeks before it reaches the front lines, and it may not match Russia's stockpiles or provide effective defense against low-tech, destructive guided airstrikes.

The second aspect involves Russia continuing its disinformation campaign within Ukraine to undermine mobilization efforts and spread narratives questioning the legitimacy of President Volodymyr Zelensky's tenure, as his term expires on May 20. Although the Ukrainian Constitution clearly states that the president's powers extend indefinitely during wartime, Russia aims to exploit this situation.

The third aspect, according to Skibitskyi, is Russia's ongoing campaign to isolate Ukraine internationally, destabilizing the situation through various means.

Assessing Ukraine's battlefield prospects

Regarding the likelihood of Ukraine winning on the battlefield, Skibitskyi noted that Ukraine currently lacks the capability to win the war independently. He emphasized that such conflicts typically end through negotiations, and both sides are positioning themselves advantageously for potential talks. However, substantive negotiations may not begin until the second half of 2025, by which time Russia is expected to face significant challenges.

In summary, Russia's plan for destabilizing Ukraine involves military, disinformation, and international isolation tactics, with negotiations potentially beginning in the latter part of 2025.