Unofficially: Putin ready to reach an agreement with Ukraine. The conditions are clear

In an exclusive report by The New York Times, emerging information suggests that Russian President Vladimir Putin is discreetly conveying his openness to a ceasefire in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This report posits that Putin's willingness is contingent on securing an agreement that would allow Russia to maintain control over the territories in Ukraine it has already captured, effectively asserting a claim of victory.

Behind-the-scenes diplomacy and Putin's conditions

The New York Times sheds light on the intricacies of Putin's diplomatic maneuvers, revealing that the Russian president has been employing behind-the-scenes channels since at least September to communicate his openness to a ceasefire. These channels involve intermediaries who are expected to convey Putin's conditions to Western officials. The proposed conditions indicate a scenario where Ukraine would retain its sovereignty, but Russia would persist in controlling a significant portion, nearly one-fifth, of the territory it has already captured.

The use of intermediaries in these diplomatic efforts adds an element of nuance, underscoring the delicacy of the situation and the complexity of the negotiations. This clandestine approach also speaks to the geopolitical sensitivity surrounding the conflict and the potential ramifications of a ceasefire agreement.

Skepticism and ongoing conflict

While The New York Times report outlines Putin's purported openness to a ceasefire, skepticism looms large over the likelihood of Ukraine's acceptance of such terms. Ukrainian leaders have consistently declared their commitment to reclaiming all lost territory, casting doubt on the feasibility of an agreement that allows Russia to retain any significant portion of its conquests. Some U.S. officials express reservations, viewing Putin's overture as a potential misdirection by the Kremlin, asserting that it might not genuinely reflect Putin's willingness to compromise.

Former Russian officials contribute to the air of uncertainty, suggesting that Putin's stance could shift again, particularly if Russian forces gain momentum on the battlefield. This highlights the fluid and unpredictable nature of the conflict and the challenges associated with reaching a lasting resolution.

Amid these diplomatic maneuvers and uncertainties, the conflict in Ukraine persists. The Ukrainian Armed Forces report ongoing hostilities, with the enemy allegedly disregarding the laws and customs of war. Attacks, missile launches, and clashes continue, indicating the complexity of the situation and the significant hurdles that lie ahead in achieving a sustainable ceasefire.

Delay Western aid to Ukraine?

This fits more into Russian efforts to delay further military aid to Ukraine than into a serious desire to end the war without Moscow's full victory, ISW analysts believe.

ISW recalled that the Kremlin had already tried to mislead Western politicians. He wanted them to put pressure on Ukraine regarding negotiations with Russia in the winter at the turn of 2022 and 2023. The purpose of these actions was to distract the West from providing Ukraine with sufficient resources before the planned counteroffensive.

Most likely, the Kremlin now wants to achieve the same effect against the background of ongoing talks on further military aid for Kiev, an American think tank assumes.