Ukraine has a chance to take the next step on its way to the EU

From the moment Ukraine submitted its application for EU membership, it was certain that Kiev, despite repelling Russian aggression, would not receive any reduced tariffs. EU leaders left no doubts to the administration of Volodymyr Zelensky, emphasizing at every opportunity that the enlargement process is not based on merit, but on the implementation of the EU acquis. And everything indicates that the European Commission, satisfied with the pace of Ukraine's integration with the EU, will tomorrow officially submit its recommendation to start accession negotiations with the country.

Unofficial information regarding opinions may appear today. However, this does not automatically initiate negotiations.

"I am convinced that you will manage to achieve your ambitious goal"

The commencement of accession negotiations is the next step in the formal process of accession to the European Union after obtaining the status of a candidate country. If tomorrow the European Commission officially recommends that member states start these negotiations, each of the 27 capitals must ultimately agree to such a step.

The problem is that the veto in recent weeks by Hungary and Slovakia of both EUR 50 billion in macro-financial assistance for Ukraine as part of the budget revision and EUR 20 billion in military assistance over the next four years. It is not the best forecast before the EU summit.

– I am convinced that you will be able to achieve your ambitious goal, i.e. that the historic decision to open the accession negotiations process will be made already this year

said Ursula von der Leyen in the Ukrainian parliament on Saturday during her sixth visit to the country since the outbreak of the full-scale invasion.

So far, however, Budapest has not blocked the directional decisions of the "27" regarding enlargement, but the Deputy Prime Minister for Ukraine's integration with the EU and NATO, Olha Stefaniszyna, claims that Hungary will try to speculate and manipulate its consent, although in the end she expressed hope for finding unanimity. If this happens (during the EU summit on December 14-15), Ukraine will move to the next stage of the enlargement process.

Accession negotiations. What are they?

Only the December decision may allow accession negotiations to open. What are they? In short, the implementation of reforms that will implement the European legal order into the Ukrainian legal order. In practice, this means the implementation of 35 chapters of the legal acquis, which covers all issues - from the principle of the three freedoms (movement of people, goods and services) through financial regulations, agriculture, environmental protection to student exchange. The EC decides to open subsequent chapters, but only closing all of them may result in a positive recommendation from Brussels to move to the next stage - membership in the Union.

During the negotiations, intergovernmental conferences are held with the participation of ministers from EU countries and the candidate country. Member states also present their negotiating positions, which are ultimately consolidated into one EU position. The candidate country then has to implement the acquis based on the accession criteria. However, the entire negotiation procedure is expected to last at least several years and is the longest stage of enlargement of each country that joined the EU.

Will Ukraine be able to maintain this pace?

Accession negotiations are currently underway with Albania and North Macedonia, as well as Montenegro, which is at the most advanced stage of enlargement of the three. Albania submitted an application for membership in 2009, became a candidate country in 2014, and started negotiations in 2019. North Macedonia, mainly due to the historical dispute with Greece, had to wait even longer: it submitted its application in 2004, status candidate country received in 2005, but started negotiations only with Albania in 2019. Montenegro, after submitting an application in 2008, became a candidate country in 2010, and started negotiations already in 2012.

What will be the future of the European Union?

It is worth considering the term "full-fledged" at this point, because the discussion about the place of Kiev (and other capitals) in the EU is today accompanied by a broader debate on the enlargement process. During the discussion, various ideas are floated, including the division into a multi-speed Union proposed by French President Emmanuel Macron.

It would de facto mean an internal division of the EU and the candidate countries, which could have to wait many years for real membership. Although the Ukrainian authorities emphasize that they will not be satisfied with "second-class membership", the discussion about treaty reform is a fact. The direction of this discussion will largely be determined by the EC's proposals, which are expected to appear on the table at the beginning of next year.