The struggle continues: Ukraine's battle in the face of adversity

The weather window for offensive operations has closed. The line of contact between the troops was covered with a mixture of snow and mud, and service at the front became extremely exhausting. Soldiers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are stuck in trenches. What's next?

A soldier of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, dirty with mud and gray in the face, blows into his stiffened hands. His uniform is wet and covered in mud, and water is dripping from his helmet. In the recording we see that his movements are limited and the walkie-talkie from his tactical vest has to be taken out by another person. In the next video, we see vehicles submerged on the road, which has turned into a lake of mud and snow.

Harsh realities on the front lines

Formally, on June 4, 2023, Ukraine's counteroffensive began, which was to bring the desired breakthrough of the front, a massive retreat of Russian forces, or at least a fragmentary victory that would shock the Kremlin and partially revise Vladimir Putin's policy. The war games conducted before the offensive operation showed that it must have ended in success. However, if we take into account what equipment Ukraine received, or rather did not receive (e.g. modern IFVs and tanks in more than one mechanized division, ATACMS missiles in more than 20 numbers, or multi-role aircraft), it is difficult state that Ukraine has received resources to conduct it in accordance with NATO doctrine.

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As Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, the commander-in-chief in Ukraine, later noted bitterly, no one expected that Russia, with such losses, would still be determined to hold the front in the occupied territories. Questions are beginning to arise as to whether including Bakhmut in the operation made sense, and whether the Ukrainian Armed Forces should have focused solely on the Melitopol direction in order to cut a land corridor between Russia (through the occupied Donbas and Zaporozhye) and Crimea. Cadet Biegler was already turning the tide of historical battles in his notebook from the adventures of the good soldier Švejk. However, the question facing Ukraine is not where mistakes were made, but what the future holds.

Vladimir Putin has unfortunately shown his determination to continue the fighting at all costs. The Russian dictator suffered a geopolitical defeat and did not include Ukraine in the Russian sphere of influence by force, and even Finland joined NATO. But Putin has one last asset that dictators waging total wars always cling to: time.

Vladimir Vladimirovich and his close circle have lost contact with reality, but perhaps not to such an extent as many analysts estimated. If the Kremlin has noticed its weakness in this war, it will - and this is confirmed by Moscow's actions - play for time, calculating that Russia is more determined to fight a protracted war, not the West. As Felix Koneczny taught, Russia is part of a steppe civilization, where power has a completely different definition than in the West. Autocracy, tsarism, and then Bolshevik totalitarianism did not happen by accident. The Kremlin views the Western democratic model of power with contempt, believing it to be unstable and unstable. The year 2022 was a test for the West set by Putin.

West's response and internal struggles

It turned out that despite the differences, the West showed a certain dimension of unity and supported Ukraine in its struggle. The scenario of the Munich Conference of 1938, which led to the partitions of Czechoslovakia, was not repeated and instead of - in naive thoughts - canceling the threat of a great war in Europe, it accelerated it. A lesson was learned from the failed diplomatic attempts that Adolf Hitler mocked.

Putin assumed that the West would repeat the “Munich” scenario. Here his plans were thwarted. In 2023, the West needed a spectacular victory over Putin's plans. This was supposed to be the long-announced counteroffensive of Ukrainians armed with NATO weapons. Unfortunately, which was the West's mistake, there was nervousness in the ranks, as if certain decisions were being rushed. In the English-language media, it looked as if Joe Biden was already leaving the White House and trying to push through aid packages for Kyiv as quickly as possible.

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This is what the Kremlin took advantage of by fortifying the so-called Surovikin line. Several months of mining and engineering were crucial to Russian success, and NATO analysts did not seem to appreciate it. Moscow pushed cannon fodder in the form of mobilized reservists and equipment rebuilt at the expense of the civilian economy, and simply… waited.

"Ukraine is gradually becoming less dependent on aid. Our goals for 2024 are clear: to take away Russia's advantage and disrupt its offensive activities
- said the president of Ukraine

Militarily, the Ukrainian counteroffensive failed, and opponents of support for Kyiv began to use it populistically. As I have written many times, the American taxpayer's money does not go only to Ukraine, but mainly to the arms industry on the Potomac, which protects jobs in the US. Nobody talks about it. The nervousness in the West has had an impact on Volodymyr Zelensky, who went from being a world leader, widely applauded for his heroism, to being portrayed as a man of conflict and unable to cope with war. The media put General Załużny in line to succeed Zelensky.

Military perspectives and the path ahead

Regardless of who will rule in Kyiv (and I do not rule out that, seeing the change in policy in the US, e.g. Trump's election, the Ukrainian public may choose General Zaluzhny, knowing that Zelensky had a "rough" relationship with Trump), it remains unclear one issue. How long can Ukraine withstand the war with Russia and its brutal determination to continue the fight, supported by the will to bear losses, resources, and allies such as Iran, North Korea and partly China, supplying weapons, ammunition and key components? The loneliness syndrome, i.e. being cut off from aid, would be an extremely bad scenario, although it would not make Ukraine give up its weapons overnight.

The Ukrainians know how to fight effectively against the Russians, how to save their strength, how to shoot into the aggressors' positions, and how to set traps for them. Tactical skill and combat-determined elite troops of Ukraine enable the continuation of the fight. Moreover, today, it is not very right to blame Kyiv for not deploying most of its forces during the counteroffensive. These may be the spared forces that will hold the front line in 2024.

It seems to me that the authorities in the West are also influenced by the military elites who, as we hear in the statements of General Lloyd Austin (head of the Pentagon), want to support Ukraine. The military understands that Russia's appetites are much greater than Ukraine's, and supporting Kyiv is in the interest of preserving the remnants of the global security architecture that has been painstakingly built over generations. The hope is that even after Western circles skeptical about Kyiv come to power, politicians, supported by an administration that understands the raison d'être, will not simply abandon Ukraine.

Currently, in the Western secret services, management positions include officers who were trained to fight Soviet agents and who remember what the USSR was like. Fortunately, this cannot be erased, no matter who is in power. Even if Trump, whom the Colorado judiciary is trying to remove from the electoral rolls, became president and tried to implement his campaign demands, it would be difficult for him to square isolationism.

2024 - the crucial year ahead

The weather and difficult weather conditions at the turn of the year will wreak havoc on both sides. The individual equipment of Ukrainian soldiers is higher than that of Russian soldiers, but the service is very difficult. Unfortunately, this will result in the strengthening of the current front line, which Putin will want to present as a new "demarcation line" during possible ceasefire negotiations.

The year 2024 will be crucial for Ukraine and the West, because the West must knock the last attribute out of Putin's hand in the form of his “playing for time”. Putin may win this auction of who is more determined to continue the war if the West gives up. The mere risk of this scenario affects Ukraine and the morale of this society, which is something the Kremlin cares about. The dilemma is not whether, but what Ukrainians should fight to defend their country and stop Putin.