Security Expert urges NATO and EU action in Ukraine: a call for increased support and strategic measures

Security expert Nicolas Tenzer from the Sciences Po Institute in Paris and the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) expressed his concern about the situation in Ukraine. He suggested that NATO and the European Union should consider sending their armed forces to Ukraine as a security guarantee.

Tenzer noted that this option is already being considered in some circles due to the armed conflict that Russia is waging against Ukraine, which is of key importance for the future of Europe.

Nicolas Tenzer: Ukraine must win

Expressing his concerns, Tenzer mentioned that most European democratic leaders are currently not paying enough attention to the situation in Ukraine. According to him, they should emphasize more the need for Ukraine's victory and Russia's complete defeat. The expert also drew attention to the fact that the interest of public opinion and the media had shifted to the conflict in the Gaza Strip.

Tenzer emphasized that leaders should not forget and must make public opinion aware that the war waged by Russia against Ukraine is crucial for the future of Europe and even areas beyond it.

"This is a conflict in which we cannot accept defeat; this is a war we must win"
Security expert Nicolas Tenzer emphasized.

When asked about the French support for Kyiv in the war with Moscow, Tenzer replied that, according to the latest public opinion polls, most EU countries still show significant support for Ukraine. He added that if we look at recent polls, even those recently conducted in the US, the results are exactly the same.

About 80 percent of respondents perceive Russia as a threat. Still, this does not mean that support is uniform across all social strata. Even in the extreme right or radical left groups, there is still a majority, with over 50 percent of people generally supporting Ukraine and perceiving Russia as a threat. For far-right voters in France, however, the more important issue is migration, and for the radical left — purchasing power, unemployment, and inequality.

Tenzer noted that issues related to employment, purchasing power, inflation, etc., are very important to societies.

"This is another reason why he believes that in EU countries, as well as in the USA, presidents, prime ministers, ministers, etc., should talk more about Ukraine. If we win the war, many of these issues will already be resolved"
Security expert argued.

Defeatism in the media — the work of Russian propaganda

According to Tenzer, there is “defeatism” in the media. He pointed to articles in the “Economist”, “Washington Post”, “New York Times”, “Times of London” and in the French press, which talk about Ukraine losing. He recalled that defeatism is also something that is reinforced by Russian propaganda. On social media, Russians are trying to emphasize that Ukrainians cannot win — this is Moscow's narrative.

When asked about the support of French leaders and businesses that withdrew from Russia and thus incurred the costs, Tenzer emphasized that there are different categories of enterprises. "There are companies that have not been present in Russia since the beginning of the war, so for them, it is not really a problem. There were a few companies that made the wise decision to exit at an earlier stage. Eighteen years ago, I advised some very large companies not to do business in Russia" - he said.

"These companies have lost a lot of money before 2022, up to EUR 600 million. Many French enterprises expected significant growth of the middle class in Russia, but this did not happen. Businessmen also underestimated the political and legal risks. By staying in Russia, French, German, and British companies were guided by a mixture of naivety and greed. I have no mercy for them"
said Nicolas Tenzer.

What can France do for Ukraine?

Tenzer wonders what France can do for Ukraine. "It depends not only on France but also on the acceptance of other EU countries. I am thinking, first of all, about all deliveries of modern weapons that were not delivered to Ukraine. The EU and the US could have done much more. I know that there are ongoing talks between France and Ukraine on bilateral security guarantees for Kyiv.

However, I think that what Emmanuel Macron and EU leaders should do is try to convince some countries that are thinking about the future of the EU, including Poland, the Czech Republic, the Baltic states, and maybe a few others, to send troops to the liberated territories of Ukraine - either under the umbrella of the EU or NATO," said Tenzer.

"These soldiers will not fight to regain occupied territories. However, stationing troops there will at least provide some guarantees to areas that are currently free of Russian forces. If we can't have Ukraine in NATO now because there's still a war going on, then we could have NATO in Ukraine or the EU in Ukraine. This would be the most specific security guarantee we could offer," says the expert.

Tenzer assumes that Russia would threaten those countries that decided to send their troops to Ukraine, but these countries are also NATO countries. "If NATO forces are attacked in any part of the world, in Ukraine or elsewhere, then these countries could trigger Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty (the alliance clause providing for common defense within NATO). I can easily bet that Moscow would not take the risk," the source told PAP.

"This issue is not discussed among the heads of political parties, but certainly in executive circles. But as far as I know, that decision hasn't been made yet. I would say to all Western leaders: Do not be afraid"
Tenzer stressed.

When asked how long Ukraine can withstand Russia's aggression, the expert said that everything will depend on new weapons that will appear in the coming weeks and months. "We expect that we will have F-16 multi-role aircraft at the end of winter or at the beginning of spring. This could be a game-changer. We still don't know if the U.S. will deliver more long-range ATACMS missiles - it appears it has only delivered 20 and could easily deliver 200 or 300 without exhausting its stockpile. I'm very pessimistic about the German Taurus. Chancellor Olaf Scholz seems stubborn on this issue. I hope that France will deliver Mirage 2000 fighters", Tenzer stressed.

“My recommendation is basically guns, guns, guns, guns — and that's it. Unfortunately, there must be greater willingness, certainly on the part of the EU, to make decisive progress on sanctions” said the expert.

Tenzer also supports the idea of freezing the assets of the Russian Central Bank. This is an amount of USD 300 billion, which - in his opinion - should be seized and used to purchase key types of weapons for Ukraine. "Too much money. We can buy a lot of weapons that can be a real game-changer. We also need to do more to put an end to sanctions circumvention and the EU's reluctance to impose secondary sanctions," the analyst concluded.