Putin sent nuclear weapons to Belarus. It is deployed near NATO borders

The United States appears inclined to accept Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's assertions regarding the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus, positioning them near NATO borders. This strategic move by the Kremlin aims to coerce the North Atlantic Alliance into discontinuing military assistance to Ukraine, as discussed in an article from The Wall Street Journal.

Recalling President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko's statement at the end of 2023 that Russia had completed the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in his country, analysts initially perceived it as a bluff. However, recent developments suggest that the claims might indeed be accurate.

U.S. officials remain reticent about their intelligence on the transfer, leaving room for speculation that Lukashenko may be bluffing. Nonetheless, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan stated in June that Putin had initiated “steps to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus”, underscoring the seriousness of the situation.

Is there any reason to doubt? We know where the weapons are

Any skepticism is further addressed by a July 2023 statement from the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, reported by CNN, asserting that there was “no reason to doubt” Putin's claims regarding nuclear weapons in Belarus.

Recently, the United States has even identified the “probable location” of these nuclear weapons in Belarus, with the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) analyzing open-source intelligence, including video footage from the Belarusian Ministry of Defense. The conclusion drawn is that a military airport in the city of Lida, situated 40 kilometers from NATO member Lithuania's border, is the likely site.

The specific wing of the Belarusian Air Force equipped with the Su-25 aircraft is identified as the probable unit responsible for Belarus' new nuclear mission with Russia, according to the WSJ.

The timing of Lukashenko's announcement aligns with Russia's heightened threats against the West amid its conflict with Ukraine. In November 2023, Russia withdrew from the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and conducted unsuccessful tests of the Yars and Bulava missiles, both carriers of nuclear warheads.

Simultaneously, the Kremlin is bolstering and militarizing the Rosgvardiya, evoking parallels with the Soviet Union's arming of internal troops in response to the unstable situation in the late 1980s. This development is seen by military and political observer Oleksandr Kovalenko as indicative of a “fracture” within the Russian Federation, as reported by the Information Resistance group.