How long to wait until the end of the war: predictions of the Ukrainians

More than three-quarters of Ukrainians (77%) believe in Ukraine's victory. A third of them (31%) hope victory will come before the end of 2023. And another third (32%) expect to win in 1-2 years (by the end of 2025)

About 13% of Ukrainians believe that victory will have to wait at least 3-5 years. More than 22% of Ukrainians could not comment on the time frame of the victory. It can be assumed that in the absence of noticeable achievements at the front, Ukrainians will expect a longer duration of the war, and successes, on the contrary, will contribute to an increase in the number of those who believe that victory in the war is imminent.

For more than half of the respondents, the only possible scenario for the development of events is a war to victory, without compromises and concessions.

Moreover, according to survey data, the opinion about territorial concessions is not common among Ukrainians, only 6% of the population supports them. In none of the macro-regions are territorial concessions much more widespread than the national average, according to sociologists.

For example:

During the social survey, which took place on June 5-15, 2023, 2,001 respondents aged 18 and over were interviewed in Vinnytsia, Volhynia, Dnepropetrovsk, Zhitomir, Transcarpathia, Zaporozhye, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv , Mykolaiv, Odessa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Kherson, Khmelnitsky, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Chernivtsi and the city of Kyiv (in the Zaporizhia, Kharkiv and Kherson regions - only in areas controlled by Ukraine and where no war). The face-to-face method was used during the study. The maximum random sampling error does not exceed 2.3%.

The slow progress of Ukraine's counter-offensive to retake Russian-occupied territories is dimming hopes that the war could end this year and reopening the prospect of a protracted conflict with no set end date, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday. The impasse puts US President Joe Biden's strategy of pouring billions of dollars in military aid to Ukraine into the test.

The Ukrainian counter-offensive is underway

The Ukrainian counter-offensive, launched in early June, aims to recover as much as possible of nearly 20 percent. Ukrainian territory occupied by Moscow. Ukraine has not yet reached the breakthrough moment of the counter-offensive that could force Russia to negotiate, the "WSJ" estimates.

American officials admit that the counter-offensive is progressing slowly, while claiming it is too early to assess its effectiveness. "Kyiv's mission is difficult," a representative of one of the European countries strongly supporting Ukraine, who wished to remain anonymous, told the newspaper. His government did not expect that Ukrainian forces would be able to remove Russian troops from all of eastern Ukraine or retake Crimea. Although surprise is possible.

Long-term US support

One Western diplomat in Washington told the newspaper that the US may have to accept that the war with Russia will not end soon, and that the allies must prepare for a multi-year program to support Ukraine.

"The only real answer is industrial mobilization, which will send a clear message to Ukrainians and Russians that Ukrainians will always have enough of what they need," said an anonymous diplomat.

The question is whether the U.S. and its allies are committed to continuing support, or even expanding it, if the Ukrainian counter-offensive continues to fall short of expectations.