Escalation of kamikaze drone attacks: record numbers over Ukrainian cities

In September, there was a significant escalation of drone attacks by Russia over Ukrainian cities. The aggressor launched a staggering total of 521 Shahed-136 drones, including 30 launched during the night, as reported by military observer Oleksandr Kovalenko via Telegram.

Kovalenko noted that the previous record was set in May 2023 when the invaders used 413 kamikaze drones. However, there had been a decrease in the intensity of drone raids in the subsequent months, with 197 in June, 246 in July, and 167 in August.

Massive kamikaze drone attacks in Ukraine

The bulk of these drone attacks in September targeted the Odesa Oblast, focusing on vital port infrastructure along the Danube and grain centers. The Russian occupiers have been using these drone attacks to disrupt Ukraine's grain exports, often altering their routes to avoid anti-aircraft defenses. Unfortunately, the reduction in the number of Shahed-136 drones being shot down indicates that they have been successful in their efforts.

The surge in drone attacks in September can be attributed to Russia's increased production of the Shahed-136 drones. However, it's worth noting that Russia has encountered challenges in this production process. Delivery delays were caused by a heavy reliance on smuggled spare parts, and Russia cannot establish a self-sustaining production cycle independently from Iran in the near future, as pointed out by the expert.

Kovalenko suggested that Iran had expanded its production capacity, enabling Russia to intensify its drone attacks on Ukrainian cities. While this is partly true, there are nuances. Initially, Iran's production facilities, which were manually assembled and lacked automation, could only produce up to 50 Shahed-136 drones per month. By the end of 2022, Iran managed to increase its production to around 100 per month, and it's possible that by May, this number may have reached 150-200.

What is a Shahed kamikaze drone?

The Shahed kamikaze drone, which Iran has not officially confirmed supplying to Russia, has been in Iranian service since 2020. These drones can reach speeds of up to 200 km/h and have a flight range of 2,000 kilometers. Once launched, they can loiter in the air, search for targets, and upon identification, execute an attack and explode. They can operate both with human operators and autonomously.

In Ukraine, two types of drones are used by the occupiers: Shahed-131 and Shahed-136, known as Geran-1 and Geran-2 by the Russians. Fragments with these inscriptions have been discovered at the attack sites. Due to their distinctively loud engine noise, which resembles a moped or lawn mower, these drones have colloquially been referred to as "mopeds".

The Shahed-136 drone made its combat debut in Ukraine on September 12, 2022, near Kupyansk in the Kharkiv Oblast.