A separate nuclear umbrella for Europe? The prospect of a Trump victory is spurring a new debate over nuclear weapons

The prospect of another Donald Trump presidency is causing anxiety in Berlin. As it stands, there is a possibility that Joe Biden's predecessor may return to office. This raises concerns for Germany, which was a target of verbal attacks from the populist leader during his initial term. The question arises: would Trump genuinely consider leaving NATO, potentially leaving Europe vulnerable to Russian influence and aggression?

Trump's first term and European security

During Trump's 2017-2021 tenure, Germany faced criticism for insufficient security investments and alleged dependence on the U.S. However, despite Trump's confrontational rhetoric, his policies did not have practical implications for European security. In fact, Trump provided military aid to Ukraine, including anti-tank missiles, a move not taken by his predecessor Barack Obama. Trump's decisions, such as increasing troop presence in Poland, did not result in negative consequences for European nations.

The fear now is that a reelected Trump might behave even more unpredictably. Observers believe a second term would witness a Trump less constrained by advisors and more inclined to follow his instincts. In Europe, this would coincide with an altered geopolitical landscape, given Russia's aggressive actions against Ukraine and its desire to reshape the European security order.

European Nuclear Umbrella debate: practical challenges and skepticism

This backdrop has revived discussions about the nuclear umbrella for Germany and Europe. Some propose the idea of European nuclear arms, but skepticism exists, given the reluctance of EU member states to cede sovereignty. An alternative is extended deterrence, where France and/or the United Kingdom would replace the U.S. in providing security guarantees for EU and NATO countries.

However, doubts linger about the credibility of such extended deterrence, as neither France nor the UK carries the same impact as the U.S. Russia may see it as an opportunity to test the resolve of European nations. The conclusion is that only the U.S. can effectively provide extended deterrence against potential aggressors.

European strategy: preserving the U.S. Nuclear Umbrella

In this context, Europe's interest lies in preserving the American nuclear umbrella. To achieve this, European states should take on a larger share of non-nuclear security responsibilities, relieving the burden on the U.S. A significant increase in defense budgets, concrete measures, and support for Ukraine could demonstrate Europe's commitment to security and strengthen Joe Biden's appeal in the upcoming election.

Rather than entertaining the idea of a European nuclear umbrella, European governments are urged to focus on practical steps to share the burden of security with the U.S. This includes leading in military aid and supplying weapons and ammunition. The urgency stems from the realization that Biden might be the last American president willing to provide such comprehensive assistance. It is time for Europe to prioritize security seriously.